New research from Mintel reveals that the number of Brits baking in the home is falling. Whilst over five in six (85%) UK adults baked at home in 2013, this figure has dropped to just over three quarters (77%) in 2014.

2013_Mintel_hi-resFurthermore, although 80% of Brits baked from scratch in 2013, in 2014 this has dropped to 73%. Meanwhile, whilst 72% baked partly from scratch in 2013, in 2014 this declined to 67%. Following this fall in consumer demand, retail value sales of baking mixes are predicted to drop from £59 million in 2012, to an estimated £52 million in 2014.

Overall, home baking sales are expected to reach a soggy bottom by the end of the year in comparison to the healthy rise in previous years. Although home baking value sales thickened from £1.41 billion in 2009 to £1.79 billion in 2013, sales are expected to fall by 2% to £1.76 billion in 2014.

Defying the downturn however, retail sales of cake coverings, decorations, culinary aids and cooking chocolate are expected to rise to the occasion, with 2014 sales of these products predicted to be up 80% on 2009 with sales growing from £98 million to an estimated £176 million.

Consumers’ tendency to spend more time in the home to save money during and after the recession provided an ideal climate for home baking to thrive in. Nowadays there are a vast number of sources for bakers to get inspiration from – with The Great British Bake Off proving to be a runaway hit. However, with the economy rebounding, consumer confidence improving and people more willing to go out and have fun, home baking faces intensifying competition for people’s free time.”

Furthermore, while concerns about health are nothing new, the escalating debate surrounding the dangers of sugar in 2014 is likely to have been particularly damaging to the home baking market.

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