- Grocery sales growth expected to peak over the seven days to 24th December with shoppers likely to spend up to £5bn making this the biggest ever week for food sales
- Price cuts and promotions now back to pre-pandemic levels, pushing promotional spend to its highest levels since February 2020
- Grocery sales up for meat and poultry (+10.1%) and confectionery (+10.2%) as shoppers prepare to enjoy fresh food, snacks and indulgences for the holidays
Total Till sales at UK supermarkets has slowed (+6.8%) in the last four weeks ending 2nd December 2023 according to new data released today by NIQ (previously known as NielsenIQ). This slow down in growth is due to shoppers prioritising saving and delaying spend to take advantage of seasonal promotions during the week of Christmas.
As inflation slows, data from NIQ reveals a significant increase in promotional activity (25%), up from 23% last year. This has been well received by shoppers as 38% of branded sales across all FMCG goods in the last four weeks were purchased on promotions and 16% of private label, pushing promotional spend to the highest level since February 2020. 1
NIQ data also reveals strong value sales growth (+8.2%) for online grocery shopping compared to in store shopping (+5.3%) boosting online market share to 11.5% up from 11.2% last month. This growth is in line with NIQ predictions for the Christmas period as consumers look for ways to plan their shopping in advance, budget for their Christmas shop as well as the colder weather discouraging shoppers to visit stores. 1 NIQ data also shows that volumes (units) were a little weaker this last month at -0.9%.
As shoppers remain concerned with rising household and energy bills, prioritising value where it counts remains important. Shoppers are taking advantage of promotions and stocking up on fresh foods and sweets to enjoy the holidays. Sales for meat and poultry (+10.1%) soared, making it the fastest growing category and confectionery sales (+10.2%) also indicated shoppers’ interest in treating themselves. This helps to make up for the -7% fall in general merchandise sales at the major supermarkets which is indicative of shoppers having to save money. 2
In terms of retailer performance, Sainsbury (+9.5%) was the best performing supermarket of the ‘big four’ over the last 12 weeks. Lidl (+17.3%) and Aldi (+14.3% ) continue to maintain their position as the fastest growing retailers with M&S (+12.8%) and Ocado (+11.7%) also showing steady growth.
Mike Watkins, NIQ’s UK Head of Retailer and Business Insight, said: “We know that almost ¾ of households think retailer promotions are important when choosing where to make their grocery shop at Christmas. NIQ research also shows that loyalty points play a significant role in helping shoppers save money over the festive period with over half of shoppers look for personalised loyalty card prices and promotions and 38% cash in loyalty points saved throughout the year.” 3
Watkins continues: “The good news is this will help shoppers celebrate the festive season and treat themselves to some premium food and drink and seasonal indulgences but this year value for money will be even more important. The key for retailers is to get the basics right to dish up a successful Christmas; low price, quality, and availability are the top drivers that are important to shoppers when planning where to do their main Christmas grocery shop.” 3
Table: 12-weekly % share of grocery market spend by retailer and value sales % change
Unless otherwise stated all data is NIQ Homescan Total Till
1 NIQ Homescan FMCG
2 NIQ Scantrack Grocery Multiples
3 NIQ Homescan Survey Nov 2023
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