The latest Asda Income Tracker, produced by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr), shows that pressures on UK household finances are intensifying again, with global uncertainty expected to drive up costs in the months ahead.
The data reveals that while some households saw modest gains in February, the lowest?earning families continue to fall further behind – underlining the importance of the steps Asda is taking to help families manage rising living costs.
While inflation held at 3.0% — its joint-lowest level since March 2025 — Cebr cautions that ongoing global instability is likely to keep squeezing household budgets in the months ahead.
The latest Income Tracker revealed:
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Disposable income fell again for the lowest-income group in February, leaving them facing a £72 weekly shortfall and unable to cover basic living costs.
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Housing and utilities continued to weigh heavily on household budgets, rising 4.2% year-on-year.
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Rising costs in restaurants and hotels, driven by persistent labour pressures, were the largest contributor to inflation.
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Middle-income households saw the strongest growth, with disposable income up 16.3% — equivalent to an extra £2.02 per week.
High-income households also experienced gains, largely shielded from price rises in essentials such as food, which make up a smaller share of their spending.
Asda has made a significant investment to lower prices over the past year, firmly reaffirming its position as the UK’s lowest?priced full?range supermarket. Independent comparisons from Which?* and *The Grocer show that Asda is consistently the cheapest supermarket for a big family shop.
Reacting to this month’s Income Tracker, Sam Miley, Head of Forecasting and Thought Leadership at Cebr, said: “February 2026 saw annual growth in the Asda Income Tracker dip below 1.0% once again, driven primarily by another month of elevated unemployment and slowing earnings growth. Slowing real earnings growth would have been expected to support easing inflation, however recent developments in the Middle East significantly complicate that outlook.
“Disruptions to energy infrastructure and shipping capacity in the region have driven up commodity prices substantially, which would be expected to filter through to UK consumers from March onward. This shock has substantially elevated the risk of a decline in the Income Tracker in the coming months.”
You can find this month’s Income Tracker, here.
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