- Grocery price inflation rose to 2.5% over the four weeks to 4 October, up from 2.3% last month.
- More than half of shoppers say they are very or extremely concerned about rising fuel prices as the cost of living remains front of mind ahead of the Autumn Budget.
- Cooler weather prompted a shift to comfort food, with the number of shoppers buying hot chocolate rising by 41% in September when compared with August, while those buying soup increased by 35%.
Take-home sales at the grocers increased by 1.0% in the four weeks to 4 October 2026 compared with a year ago, according to the latest data from Worldpanel by Numerator. Like-for-like grocery price inflation rose to 2.5%, compared to the 2.3% reported 4 weeks ago.
Commenting on the latest figures, Fraser McKevitt, Head of Retail and Consumer Insight at Worldpanel by Numerator, said: “With the Autumn Budget fast approaching, the cost of living continues to weigh heavily on the minds of shoppers. And the cost of filling up a car is only adding to the pressure on household budgets. More than half tell us they’re very or extremely worried about petrol prices, and almost one in three say it’s already taking a real toll on their finances*. Until the Chancellor sets out his plans, we expect that caution to carry on showing up at the till, with shoppers leaning more heavily on promotions to keep their grocery spend under control.”
With spending on promotions in the last month up by more than a quarter of a billion pounds compared with last year, special offers remain a key tool for shoppers looking to keep their grocery bills in check, or to make pricier items and larger packs more affordable.
Shoppers warming up for autumn
As summer gave way to cooler weather in September, shoppers traded barbecues for comfort food and suncream for cold remedies. The number of shoppers buying hot chocolate rose by 41% in September when compared with August, while those buying soup increased by 35%. Hearty home cooking made a comeback too, with 24% more shoppers buying gravy and 35% more buying frozen roast potatoes. The colder weather had its downsides, though: sales of facial tissues rose by 13% as the first colds of the season started doing the rounds.
Chocolate prices ease ahead of key seasonal moments
Halloween preparations are well underway, with 1.2 million households buying a pumpkin over the latest four weeks, an increase of 10% compared with the same time last year. More than 250,000 households purchased a pumpkin spice coffee over the last month as they got into the festive spirit. Shoppers stocking up on trick or treat supplies will also find chocolate a little kinder on the wallet, with like-for-like chocolate confectionary prices now 3% lower than a year ago.
Fraser McKevitt added: “Halloween and Christmas are two of the most important moments of the year for chocolate confectionery, so falling prices will be welcome news for shoppers and retailers alike. After the double digit increases of 2025, a 3% drop won’t fully reverse what consumers have paid in recent months, but it should help ease some of the pressure on household budgets as the festive season approaches.”
Lidl leads the way on share growth
Over the 12 weeks to 4 October, Lidl led in market share gains, climbing to 8.6%, up from 8.2% at the same time last year. Sales at Lidl were 7.1% higher, with strong growth across categories such as fruit, vegetables and wine. The discounter welcomed more than half a million additional customers through the doors over the 12 week period.
Sales at online specialist Ocado increased by 12.4%, outpacing overall online sales at 5.5%. Ocado accounted for 2.2% of the market, up from 2.0% a year ago.
Morrisons maintained the same 8.3% share of the market as in 2025, with sales up by 1.8%. Spending through the tills was 1.0% higher at Tesco and 1.3% higher at Sainsbury’s with the two retailers holding 27.8% and 15.2% of the market respectively. Asda share now stands at 11.5%, while Aldi now holds 10.5% of the market, with sales at the discounter up 0.4% year on year.
Waitrose sales increased by 2.3% with market share unchanged at 4.4%. Market share for Co-op also held steady capturing 5.4% of take-home spending at the grocers as sales rose by 1.8%. Iceland sales were up by 0.2% with share now at 2.2% of the market.
Beyond the supermarkets, grocery sales at M&S** rose by 14.9%.
*Worldpanel PanelVoice, Pressure Groups Survey, Aug 2026, 9,549 households interviewed, FMCG Panel. Fieldwork dates: 17th July – 29th July 2026.
**Please note: with a higher proportion of clothing and general merchandise in its sales mix, M&S does not fall under the definition of ‘grocers’ using the Till Roll methodology on which the Worldpanel Grocery Market Share release is based. For this reason, a comparable market share number is not provided for M&S. The M&S growth number quoted in this update is for FMCG sales only, while the figures for grocers in the Grocery Market Share table cover total spending through supermarkets’ tills.
An update on inflation
Grocery inflation now stands at 2.5% for the four-week period ending 4th October 2026. Prices are rising fastest in markets such as water & squash, skincare and skin cleansing. They are falling fastest in butters & spreads, chocolate and cheese.
This figure is based on over 75,000 identical products compared year on year in the proportions purchased by British shoppers and therefore represents the most authoritative figure currently available. It is a “pure” inflation measure in that shopping behaviour is held constant between the two comparison periods – shoppers are likely to achieve a lower personal inflation rate if they trade down or seek out more offers.
Worldpanel by Numerator’s data visualisation tool allows you to view and analyse grocery market share data online. The latest sales share figures for all of the major grocers can be viewed and compared with historical figures and all graphics within the Worldpanel dataviz are available to embed in your site.
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