When it comes to food and drink, innovation has long followed a familiar pattern.
Trends – from hyped products to in-demand ingredients – have traditionally been identified by forecasters, developed by R&D teams, and eventually come to land on supermarket shelves.
It’s a process that can take months, even years, and one that has typically relied on a small group of experts to make happen, writes Alex Brown, CCO and co-founder of Campfire.
Now, that model is being disrupted. Today, some of the most powerful trend forecasters don’t work in labs or agencies; they are content creators filming in their kitchens on TikTok, capturing mukbangs, or ‘trying viral food’ in their cars. Social media’s ability to influence what shoppers put in their baskets is something the grocery sector can no longer afford to ignore.
What we’ve witnessed through our proprietary trend detection tool, SPARK, which tracks emerging TikTok trends across food, drink, beauty and wellness, is that social media has become much more than a space for memes and entertainment in recent years. It’s now a cultural lab that provides an early indicator of consumer demand for grocery and FMCG.
Take the recent rise of the “wholefoods” trend we’ve seen of late. TikTok is seeing this play out in real time; in one 72-hour period recently, ‘wholefoods’ content amassed a staggering 30.8 million views. Behind the aesthetic recipe videos lies a deeper shift – a growing appetite for conscious eating and minimally processed ingredients, such as fresh produce, whole grains, and plant-based proteins, often driven by health and sustainability concerns. This isn’t just a digital fad; it’s a signal of where consumer interest is heading, which has tangible implications for how grocers stock, merchandise, and market their products.
The mistake retailers often make is thinking of TikTok purely as a marketing channel. But its value to grocers also lies in observing how consumers behave on the platform. Every like, share, and comment can be seen as a form of feedback and a prediction of where things are heading. It’s consumers showing, in real time, what excites them, what they want to try, and what aligns with their values. For grocers, that’s gold dust.
Of course, the traditional cycle of food forecasting is still important, and there will always be demand for cupboard staples and everyday ingredients. But when it comes to real innovation, it moves too slowly to capture the cultural energy that TikTok generates. A trend that starts online can influence shopping behaviour within days. If retailers aren’t ahead of the curve, they risk missing opportunities that more agile competitors will be able to seize.
However, the implementation strategy shouldn’t involve chasing every viral craze. Not every trend has staying power, and part of what we do at Campfire is separate the gimmicks from the genuine movements that could benefit FMCG clients.
The rise of plant-based eating offers a useful example. A decade ago, veganism was considered niche, but online communities were already bubbling with new recipes, ideas, and advocacy. By the time the mainstream caught up, challenger brands had captured much of the momentum. If retailers had been tracking those early cultural signals with the same seriousness as they track their sales data, they could have been the ones leading the movement, rather than racing to catch up.
TikTok is an invaluable source of intelligence, offering three major opportunities to grocers. First, it can inform stocking decisions, helping identify which flavours, formats, or categories are likely to gain traction. This will become increasingly critical as changing tariffs and adverse weather conditions continue to impact the timely supply of certain food products.
Second, it can inspire merchandising and in-store ‘theatre’ that connects with cultural moments that shoppers already recognise from their feeds. And third, it can shape marketing campaigns that feel authentic because they are rooted in the conversations already happening among consumers.
We may well see this play out in practice with the wholefoods trend. A retailer could spotlight relevant categories – grains, pulses, minimally processed snacks – through dedicated displays, recipe content, or cross-category promotions. This approach doesn’t just reflect the trend; it makes it easier for shoppers to live it out in-store. Suddenly, the supermarket is not only a place to buy products but also a stage on which cultural ideas are made tangible.
To be clear, TikTok doesn’t replace traditional forecasting or R&D; it complements them by providing an additional layer of intelligence that is live, dynamic, and in close proximity to the consumer. In a world where shoppers signal their evolving preferences online, it would be short-sighted to ignore that data.
The next big grocery movement may well begin with a creator sharing their lunch prep video to a few thousand followers, only for it to spiral into millions of views. The retailers who are watching closely, and who are prepared to act quickly, will be the ones who capture that momentum.
The bottom line? Don’t underestimate TikTok as a business tool. It is a cultural compass, and those who learn to read it will be better equipped to navigate the future of food retail.
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